杭州桑拿按摩

Tongwei (600438) third quarterly report comments: Battery profit bottomed out and silicon material business was fully heavy
Event: On October 24th, the company released the third quarter performance report for 19 years, and the company achieved revenue of 280 from January to September.25 billion, an increase of 31.03%; net profit attributable to mother 22.43 billion, an increase of 35.24%; deduct non-net profit 20.8.6 billion, an increase of 32.98%; 19Q3 company achieved revenue of 119.01 billion, an increase of 33.33%; net profit attributable to mother 7.92 billion yuan, an increase of 7.01%, in line with market expectations. Battery profit bottomed out and production capacity will continue to expand: At present, the price of monocrystalline PERC cells has stopped falling and stabilized. Through the further improvement of the company’s non-silicon cost and three rates, the company’s battery profitability will bottom out.It is expected that the company’s battery sales in the third quarter will approach 3.5GW, capacity utilization has exceeded 115%.In the first half of the year, the company started the Chengdu Phase IV and Meishan Phase I high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery projects, which were successively completed and put into operation at the end of 2019 and the beginning of the second quarter of 2020. By then, the company’s battery capacity will reach 27-28GW.166 production lines, Meishan Phase I project is compatible with 210 production lines. The proportion of single crystal materials continues to increase, and the silicon material business is fully under control: At present, the company’s old production capacity in Leshan and the density of single crystal compacts in the new Leshan factory have increased to more than 80%, and the proportion of new plants in Baotou has also increasedGradually increasing to 60%, it is expected to drive the company’s average price of silicon materials upwards; At present, the monthly output of the company’s new plant in Leshan and Baotou has climbed to more than 2800 tons / month.Increase the company’s production and sales of silicon materials. Investment suggestion: Based on the impact of the company ‘s battery business and changes in the pace of production expansion, the company ‘s profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the net profit for 2019-2021 will be 29.3 billion / 37.3 billion / 42.800 million yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.76/0.96/1.10 yuan, corresponding to an estimate of 16 for 2019-2021.2/12.8/11.1 times.We 重庆耍耍网 give an estimate of 16 times in 2020 and maintain a “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: fluctuations in new installed capacity worldwide, fluctuations in the price of photovoltaic products, cost declines, company expansion, and the risk that the demand of the aquatic industry is not up to expectations, etc.